That doesn't mean that later
marriage is a disaster: for the educated minority who are still living by the
old rules, on time delay, the new marriage norms are mostly working out great.
College graduates who wait until they are 30 to get married report an average
annual income of about $50,000--$20,000 a year more than those who married
before the age of 21. They also report arguing less frequently, and intensely,
with their spouses.
"In some ways the middle class
has really cashed in on a form of marriage that we didn't see much of
historically," says Kathryn Edin of Harvard's Kennedy School. She calls
theirs "superrelationships," with high levels of rapport and
satisfaction--not to mention income.
The divorce rate for these relationships
has plunged to levels not seen since the 1960s, and it may decline further. But
there's a big potential fly in the ointment: not all of these people are
getting established quickly enough to have all of the children they want.
A
2011 survey showed that almost half of female scientists--and a quarter of the
men--reported that their career had kept them from having as many children as
they wished.
Meanwhile, less educated women who
will never have the money for five rounds of IVF aren't running that risk;
instead, they're choosing an even bigger risk: having a child before they're in
a stable relationship.
Fifty-eight percent of first births to those women now
take place outside of marriage. And while the father is usually around at the
birth, within five years, a substantial fraction of those relationships will
have broken up.
Since 1990, the age at first marriage has soared well above the
age at first childbirth: the median age at which a woman has her first child is
now a full year earlier than the median age at which she first marries, a
phenomenon that a recent report from the National Marriage Project dubbed
"The Great Crossover."
"When I look at their
statistics, it's as if the college grads are living in a different
society," says Andrew Cherlin of Johns Hopkins, an expert on family
structure. And the college grads, unfortunately, are not the majority.
The
majority are the people without a four-year degree, for whom late marriage has
combined with early parenthood to produce a crisis in family structure. The
fragile, often fatherless family that used to be associated with the deepest
urban poverty is increasingly becoming the norm for everyone except the
educated: urban and rural, black and white, Northern and Southern.

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